Demographic trends that will shape the next ten years of work

While there are some global trends at play, certain factors unique to Australia – including shifting demographics and lifestyle expectations – are likely shape the workforce of tomorrow, says demographer and futurist Bernard Salt AM.

Australia’s population is getting older and our ethnic composition is changing. Factoring in that we’ll be working later into our lives than any generations before us, employers need to consider how they are creating workplaces that embed diversity and inclusion and cater to multigenerational workforces.

On top of this, Australians desire for a balanced and enjoyable lifestyle means that employers need to pull different levers to both attract and retain talent – beyond a competitive salary, which is a given amid our nation’s cost-of-living challenges.

Futurist and demographer Bernard Salt AM explored the influences that he believes will impact the Australian workforce in the near future at AHRI’s National Convention and Exhibition last month. Here are some highlights of what he had to say. 

The global labour pool is about to shrink, except in Australia

There are now eight billion people on earth, with a 400 per cent explosion in the population since 1900.

“This is good news for businesses that employ mass labour, who have benefitted from a nice, deep pool of talent,” says Salt.

The next 50 years, however, will tell a different story. By around 2070-80, when the global population hits 10 billion, Salt says we will reach a concept known as “peak humanity”.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data shows that the introduction of the oral contraceptive pill post baby-boom reduced the number of births per woman from an average of 3.5 to 2.9 within a decade. Now it sits at 1.7.

“That means the number of people now entering the workforce at 15 or 16 is less than the number of baby boomers exiting at 65,” he says.

The “baby bust” is a global structural issue that will drive business towards automation, mechanisation, robotics and AI to reduce reliance on labour, says Salt.

Yet Australia might just have an ace up its sleeve. Our population, which sits at 27 million today, is expected to reach around 45 million by the end of the 21st century. 

“Yes, we have falling fertility, but we have something that most other countries on the planet do not have, and that is immigration … at scale that gives us a competitive advantage,” says Salt.

Around 31 per cent of the Australian population was born outside of Australia – an “extraordinary figure” compared with other nations, including Britain (16 per cent), Germany (14 per cent) and the US (17 per cent), he says.

While this will give us a broader set of skills for businesses to draw from, there are adjustments for HR and leaders to grapple with.

“It’s a question of the issues you’re going to be confronted with in the workplace as a consequence, in terms of skill [assessments] and training,” says Salt.

For example, HR needs to keep abreast of the shifts to eligibility for temporary and permanent employer sponsorship, with roles within the three categories – short-term skilled occupation, medium-and long-term strategic skills and regional occupation – changing bi-annually.

Then there are cultural shifts that need to be factored in.

While most Australians are of British ancestry, many of those of Anglo-Saxon descent are aged in their 70s and 80s. As that population continues to trend downwards, the Filipino, Nepali and Pakistani demographics – many of whom are students who will convert into residents – are increasing in prominence, says Salt.

And the Indian population, which has increased by 43 per cent in five years, will soon be Australia’s largest migrant group.

“By about 2028, the Indian population will be the largest non-Australian born population residing in Australia for the first time in around 250 years,” Salt adds.

With this in mind, HR may need to audit their organisation’s diversity data and consider a refresh of diversity and inclusion strategies accordingly – from recruitment to onboarding and training.

Lifestyle trumps all

With the local job market stagnating, employers concerned about losing their star performers to overseas markets should bear in mind that Australian workplaces are a great reservoir to invest their energy and skills throughout the next 10 years over international options such as New York, Dubai or Tokyo. Why? Because of the nation’s unprecedented growth in wealth, says Salt.

“[Among] the 21 richest countries on earth today based on Gross Domestic Product per capita in US dollars, Australia is ranked 11th,” says Salt.

The “rocket” placed under Australia to catapult the nation forward 10 places up from where we sat 30 years ago is globalisation, driving multi-prosperity at a macro-level compared with other nations.

But where have we inhabitants of the “lucky country” spent our extraordinary wealth and prosperity? 

“Give an Australian half a chance, and they will take the lifestyle option every time – it is bolted into [our] values and can’t be changed.” – Bernard Salt AM, futurist and demographer

It’s not on military adventurism, but on quality of life – including, travel, housing and superannuation.

The lifestyle on the coast across the eastern seaboard holds the most sway, and is where investment in construction, infrastructure, finance and trade skills are saturated.

“Everywhere west of the Great Dividing Range has been conceding population,”  says Salt. “Previous generations of Australians operated in the interior, [but] we are retreating.” 

The Gold Coast – Australia’s sixth largest city modelled on Miami – didn’t even exist in the 1950’s.

“Then we ran that model all around the Australian continent [to include the] Sunshine Coast, Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbor and Mandurah,” says Salt.

To help to fill the dearth of skills in Australia’s interior, the government launched a campaign to attract Australians to rural areas in 2023 to fill 91,000 vacancies – with employees having the power to negotiate higher salaries and flexible work conditions. 

To get on the front foot, rural and regional based employers could consider revamping their acquisition proposal to focus on key areas that attract younger workers, such as rich learning environments, a strong focus on ESG matters and access to flexible working arrangements.

To cater to many of those jobs that remain in the interior of the country, we developed the “fly-in-fly-out worker” concept.

“We would rather transport workers from Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane across the other side of the continent than actually invest in towns in the interior,” says Salt.

This is a trend that continues to play out in Australia. 

“You can also see it in suburbia, sea change, tree change [and now] in work from home,” he says. “Give an Australian half a chance, and they will take the lifestyle option every time – it is bolted into [our]  values and can’t be changed.”

Our population is rapidly ageing

Back in the 1950, the life expectancy in Australia was 69 years of age – four years after qualifying for the pension. But now, Australians have a longer-than-average life expectancy. At an average of 85.3 years for women and 81.2 years for men, it exceeds most other English-speaking OECD countries.

With an average retirement age of 58, Australians are living it up in their 60s and 70s after  paying off the mortgage and a hefty dose of superannuation. 

But soon thereafter things take a downturn.

“A new question in the Census about mental health, [revealed] one in five people in their 90s suffer from anxiety and depression,” says Salt. “This is [likely due to] loneliness.’

The number of Australians inhabiting the “saddest years” is only set to grow.

“In 2032, the first baby boomer… turns 85, [an age] when there is high use of high-care service,” he says.

In the next 25 years, the number of Australians over 85 will double. That means age care services will need to rapidly ramp up. 

One of the fastest growing jobs in Australia, according to the census – which includes data from the past five years up until May this year – is aged and disabled carer, equating to 176,000 jobs in five years.

“Trained, skilled, approved, accredited [personnel] will need to be delivered into that industry,” says Salt. “So skills management training, facilities and infrastructure will need to [increase].”

This burgeoning sector requires people with vision and determination, who can shake things up and improve quality of life for this demographic, he adds. 

“If you’re in the wrong business, at the wrong time, offering the wrong product, you are pushing uphill.” – Bernard Salt AM, futurist and demographer

“We can do better than having 20 per cent of 93 year olds, lonely, isolated, afraid and concerned about the future,” he says. “[Quality] aged care is what we should be focused on.’

We’ve changed, but we’re still the same

There are many aspects of Australian life that have changed over the past 50 years, with the design of our home revealing the tell-tale signs.

In the 1960’s, a three-bed-two-bath house on a quarter-acre block was the norm – occupied by dad (the “breadwinner”), mum (a “housewife”) and four kids, says Salt.

“Now it’s a 500 square metres block, with four bedrooms – [one of which] is dedicated to what real estate agents now call the ‘Zoom room’ – two bathrooms, two income earners and two kids.” 

But what connects Australians across the decades is our desire for a quality lifestyle.

“Whether it was in the [Castle’s] ‘Darrell Kerrigan’ home in suburbia or the forever home of today, that’s what’s going to [continue to] drive behaviour,” he says.

In 2024, thanks to globalisation, digitisation and the pandemic, that includes working, shopping, studying and telehealthing from home.

While the big question at the moment is around the return to the workplace, Salt predicts there will be a substantial number of workers who’ll say “no thank you”. 

Pre-pandemic, the total proportion of the workforce that worked from home was static at five per cent for 30 years. In the census taken in August 2021, this jumped to 21 per cent – a trend Salt predicts we will see in the 2026 census.

“I think it will settle at about 15 per cent, which is 1.5 million workers working from home or in hybrid arrangements that were not there prior to the pandemic,” he says.

The drivers will likely run deeper than lifestyle in the millennial and gen Z workforce, factoring in ethical concerns such as impacts on carbon footprint and mental health.

“Imagine telling six million millennials that the pandemic is over, so you can go back to commuting five days a week, an hour into the city centre and back out again for the next 30 years,” says Salt. 

“[Those employees] will say… back to you ‘I have skills, I’m productive, and I’m contributing. There is a better model for me to operate in.’” 

With changes to the Australian landscape leading sectors such as aged care to boom, and our preoccupation with lifestyle a likely predictor of the workforce’s appetite to return to the workplace – Salt says it’s crucial for HR to keep in mind that providing a timely and relevant offering to employees is essential for businesses to thrive.

“If you’re in the wrong business, at the wrong time, offering the wrong product, you are pushing uphill.”

Ensure your business is set up to thrive in the future by putting the right plans in place today. AHRI’s ‘Workforce Planning’ short course offers both a foundational and advanced level training option to help you create a future-fit workforce.

The post Demographic trends that will shape the next ten years of work appeared first on HRM online.